Nonlinear association between changes in fasting plasma glucose and the incidence of diabetes in a nondiabetic Chinese cohort

Table 2 The incident diabetes and HR of FPG changes by sex and the stages

	FPG changes		Diabetics, N (%)	Incident Diabetes^#	HR per SD			HR
	Stages	Mean ± SD	Diabetics, N (%)	Incident Diabetes^#	Crude	Mode1	Mode2	Crude	Mode1	Mode2
Women	Stage 1:	-0.53 ± 0.26	50 (0.41%)	1.46	0.10 (0.06, 0.18)^***	0.16 (0.09, 0.28)^***	0.16 (0.09, 0.29)^***	Ref	Ref	Ref
	Stage 2:	0.31 ± 0.35	263 (0.67%)	2.14	4.28 (3.07, 5.98)^***	3.47 (2.49, 4.82)^***	3.24 (2.33, 4.51)^***	1.12 (0.82, 1.51)	1.13 (0.84, 1.53)	1.19 (0.88, 1.61)
	Stage 3:	1.61 ± 0.70	475 (17.20%)	48.20	1.56 (1.50, 1.63)^***	1.51 (1.44, 1.58)^***	1.45 (1.38, 1.52)^***	22.08 (16.47, 29.59)^***	15.20 (11.32, 20.41)^***	14.05 (10.44, 18.89)^***
Men	Stage 1:	-0.41 ± 0.30	127 (0.60%)	2.09	0.20 (0.13, 0.30)^***	0.23 (0.15, 0.34)^***	0.24 (0.16, 0.36)^***	Ref	Ref	Ref
	Stage 2:	0.46 ± 0.35	684 (1.78%)	5.59	8.32 (6.73, 10.29)^***	7.65 (6.19, 9.46)^***	7.19 (5.81, 8.91)^***	2.16 (1.79, 2.61)^***	2.15 (1.78, 2.60)^***	2.17 (1.79, 2.62)^***
	Stage 3:	2.04 ± 1.23	1070 (32.87%)	92.07	1.27 (1.24, 1.30)^***	1.29 (1.25, 1.32)^***	1.22 (1.19, 1.26)^***	30.09 (25.02, 36.19)^***	25.58 (21.27, 30.78)^***	21.95 (18.23, 26.44)^***
Overall	Stage 1:	-0.46 ± 0.29	177 (0.53%)	1.86	0.16 (0.12, 0.23)^***	6.91 (5.78, 8.26)^***	1.31 (1.28, 1.34)^***	Ref	Ref	Ref
	Stage 2:	0.38 ± 0.36	947 (1.22%)	3.86	0.20 (0.15, 0.28)^***	6.18 (5.17, 7.38)^***	1.33 (1.30, 1.36)^***	1.81 (1.54, 2.12)^***	1.81 (1.54, 2.13)^***	1.87 (1.59, 2.19)^***
	Stage 3:	1.84 ± 1.04	1545 (25.68%)	72.45	0.22 (0.16, 0.31)^***	5.72 (4.78, 6.84)^***	1.26 (1.23, 1.29)^***	28.05 (23.99, 32.79)^***	22.72 (19.43, 26.58)^***	19.61 (16.76, 22.96)^***

Data are odds ratio (95% CI). We calculated odds ratios for type 2 diabetes by multivariable Cox regression analysis. We estimated 95% CIs from FPG (fasting plasma glucose) that represent the amount of information underlying each group (including the reference group). FPG changes was defined as the difference between the baseline and final visit FPG (FPG2) (mmol/L). Mode 1: adjusted for age; Mode 2: adjusted for age, BMI, SBP, DBP, total cholesterol, triglyceride, HDL, LDL and history of diabetes. In women: stage-1: < -0.24 mmol/L; stage-2: -0.24—1.15 mmol/L; stage-3: ≥ 1.16 mmol/L. In men: stage-1: < -0.05 mmol/L; stage-2: -0.05—1.31 mmol/L; stage-3: ≥ 1.32 mmol/L. Overall: stage-1: < -0.04 mmol/L; stage-2: -0.04—1.24 mmol/L; stage-3: ≥ 1.25 mmol/L. ^***P < 0.001. ^# per 1000 persons per year

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