The incidence of diabetes mellitus and diabetic retinopathy in a population-based cohort study of people age 50 years and over in Nakuru, Kenya

Table 3 Extrapolated number of new adults, per year, aged 50 years and over in Kenya with diabetes mellitus and diabetic retinopathy based on incidence data (adjusted to take account of loss to follow up) and estimates of the population in Kenya by age group in 2015

	Male			Female			Overall
Age group (years)	Extrapolated number	Lower (95% CI)	Upper (95% CI)	Extrapolated number	Lower (95% CI)	Upper (95% CI)	Extrapolated number	Lower (95% CI)	Upper (95% CI)
Diabetes Mellitus
50–59	10,710	7230	15,690	12,760	9020	17,910	23,570	18,340	30,140
60–69	5350	3370	8390	7400	4700	11,460	12,690	9080	17,560
70–79	1950	900	4100	3010	1570	5650	4880	3060	7680
80+	490	150	1500	200	30	1430	750	280	1950
All ages	17,910	13,660	23,350	22,860	17,710	29,390	40,780	33,630	49,270
Diabetic Retinopathy – among those without DM and those without DR
50–59	4230	1460	11,860	3850	1500	9690	8020	4020	15,840
60–69	2090	890	4820	450	60	3300	2760	1110	6770
70–79	640	150	2610	–	–	–	840	200	3410
80+	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
All ages	6520	3460	12,160	4390	1850	10,340	11,100	6670	18,370
Diabetic Retinopathy – among those without DR at baseline
50–59	1650	340	3430	1850	430	5170	3790	1520	7390
60–69	2090	660	3880	–	–	–	2840	830	6470
70–79	370	10	1980	–	–	–	620	30	3780
80+	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
All ages	4300	2070	7310	2260	570	7100	7080	3690	12,240

All are based on 2015 estimates of population
Diabetes Mellitus: Population at risk are all adults over 50 who do not have DM. To estimate the size of the population at risk the 2008 DM prevalence is used. Expected number of new DM diagnoses in 50+ year old individuals per year is (population at risk x risk per 1000/6 years)/(6 × 1000)
Diabetic Retinopathy among those with no DM and without DR at baseline: Population at risk are all adults over 50 who do not have DR. To estimate the size of the population at risk the 2008 DR prevalence is used. Expected number of new DR diagnoses in 50+ year old individuals per year is (population at risk x risk per 1000/6 years)/(6 × 1000)
Diabetes Retinopathy among those with DM out without DR at baseline: Population at risk are all adults over 50 who have DM but do not have DR. To estimate the size of the population at risk the 2008 DR prevalence is used. Expected number of new DR diagnoses in those 50+ year old with DM per year is (population at risk x risk per 1000/6 years)/(6 × 1000)
Sample sizes are small for the DR analyses, so estimates have wide confidence intervals

ISSN: 1472-6823