Predictive value of serum testosterone for type 2 diabetes risk assessment in men

BMC Endocrine Disorders

Table 2 Performance of risk models for predicting 5 year risk of T2D in men

	Incidence (n/N)	AROC (95 % CI)	HL Chi-SQ statistic	P for HL	AIC	BIC
Risk prediction models: variables
Model 1: Variables from AUSDRISK ^a	147/1655	0.76 (0.72,0.80)	5.29	0.726	895	960
Model 2: Model 1 with variables from other risk models ^b	147/1655	0.82 (0.79,0.86)	4.84	0.775	847	987
Model 3: Model 2 with total testosterone (continuous variable)	147/1655	0.82 (0.79,0.86)	4.45	0.815	844	990
Model 4: Model 2 with total testosterone (<16 vs ≥16 nmol/L)	147/1655	0.83 (0.79,0.86)	3.97	0.860	846	992
Model 5: Backwards selection model^c	147/1655	0.82 (0.78,0.85)	5.43	0.711	825	885
Sensitivity analyses
Model 6: Model 4 without imputation (15.5 % missing)	126/1399	0.82 (0.78,0.86)	NA	NA	NA	NA
Model 7: Model 4 for NWAHS cohort	62/820	0.79 (0.74,0.85)	NA	NA	NA	NA
Model 8: Model 4 for FAMAS cohort	85/835	0.84 (0.79,0.88)	NA	NA	NA	NA

Notes: AROC area under receiver operating characteristic curve (imputation with median AROC reported), HL Hosmer-Lemeshow, AIC Akaike information criterion; Bayesian information criterion, NA not applicable because we are not fitting a new model - just testing the existing model; ^a Age, ethnicity/country of birth, family history of diabetes, IFG instead of self reported high blood glucose, currently taking blood pressure medications, current smoking status, physical inactivity, waist circumference category; ^b Pre-diabetes, BMI category, diagnosed cardiovascular disease, high blood pressure, high triglycerides, low HDL-C, income category; ^c Backwards selection model started with all available variables included in Model 4, dropped if p > 0.25, re-entered if p < 0.20 (retained variables were family history of diabetes, currently taking blood pressure medications, current smoking, waist circumference category, pre-diabetes, high blood pressure, low HDL-C low serum testosterone <16 nmol/L); Net changes in AROC were: Model 5 vs Model 2, 0.0093 (95 % CI: −0.0032,0.0218, P = 0.1455)

ISSN: 1472-6823