Parameter | Mean | SD | RSD | Distribution | Hyperparameters | Sourcea |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ratio of patients having initial complications | 0.650 | 0.0650 | 10 % | Beta | α = 34.30 | Assumption based on [2] and expert opinion |
β = 18.47 | ||||||
Ratio of patients being insulin independent 23 days after the latest transplantation | ||||||
For the 1st transplantation | 0.150 | 0.0375 | 25 % | Beta | α = 13.45 | Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion |
β = 76.21 | ||||||
For the 2nd transplantation | 0.700 | 0.1050 | 15 % | Beta | α = 12.63 | Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion |
β = 5.41 | ||||||
For the 3rd and 4th transplantation (each) | 0.850 | 0.0355 | 15 % | Beta | α = 5.80 | Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion |
β = 1.02 | ||||||
Hazard ratio (HR) of getting diabetes-related complications | ||||||
For patients with partial graft function | 0.450 | 0.0675 | 15 % | Log-Normal | μ = -0.8096 | Assumption based on [2] |
σ = 0.149166 | ||||||
For patients with full graft function | 55.56 % of HR with partial graft function (i.e., 0.25) | 0.0840 | 15 % | Log-Normal | μ = -0.59891 | Assumption based on [2] |
σ = 0.149166 | ||||||
Recurrence of insulin dependency per cycle | ||||||
Probability of becoming partially dependent for patients with full graft function | 0.0077379 | 0.001161 | 15 % | Beta | α = 44.09 | Calculated from [2] and expert opinion |
β = 5653.02 | ||||||
Probability of graft failure for patients with full graft functionb | 0.0000164732 | 0.00000247 | 15 % | Beta | α = 44.44 | Calculated from [2] and expert opinion |
β = 2,697,667 | ||||||
Probability of graft failure within the first six months for patients with partial graft functionb | 0.045 | 0.00675 | 15 % | Beta | α = 42.40 | Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion |
β = 899.81 | ||||||
Probability of graft failure after the first six months for patients with partial graft functionb | 0.00532 | 0.000798 | 15 % | Beta | α = 44.20 | Calculated from [2] and expert opinion |
β = 8264.00 | ||||||
Complications | ||||||
Probability of complications per cycle (over model horizon) | ||||||
Major immunosuppressive-related | 0.00006201 (0.015) | 0.000009302 (0.00225) | 15 % | Beta | α = 44.44 | Assumption based on [2] and expert opinion |
β = 716,613.00 | ||||||
Ratio of above that are have to end immunosuppression | 0.100 | 0.015 | Beta | α = 39.90 | Assumption based on expert opinion | |
β = 359.10 | ||||||
Additional diabetes-relatedc | 0.0018185 (0.55) | 0.000364 (0.0825) | 20 % | Beta | α = 24.96 | Assumption based on [33] |
β = 13,700.60 | ||||||
Mortality (probability of death) | ||||||
Background all-cause mortality | (Age-specific) | Fixed | ||||
Hazard ratio (HR) of mortality due to hypoglycemia | 2.40 | 0.24 | 10 % | Log-Normal | μ = 0.870494 | |
σ = 0.099751 | ||||||
HR of mortality due to diabetes-related complications | 298.45 % of HR with only hypoglycemia (i.e., 7.16) | 29.85 | 10 % | Log-Normal | μ = 1.088457 | |
σ = 0.099751 |