# Table 3 Probability and ratio parameters

Parameter Mean SD RSD Distribution Hyperparameters Sourcea
Ratio of patients having initial complications 0.650 0.0650 10 % Beta α = 34.30 Assumption based on [2] and expert opinion
β = 18.47
Ratio of patients being insulin independent 23 days after the latest transplantation
For the 1st transplantation 0.150 0.0375 25 % Beta α = 13.45 Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion
β = 76.21
For the 2nd transplantation 0.700 0.1050 15 % Beta α = 12.63 Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion
β = 5.41
For the 3rd and 4th transplantation (each) 0.850 0.0355 15 % Beta α = 5.80 Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion
β = 1.02
Hazard ratio (HR) of getting diabetes-related complications
For patients with partial graft function 0.450 0.0675 15 % Log-Normal μ = -0.8096 Assumption based on [2]
σ = 0.149166
For patients with full graft function 55.56 % of HR with partial graft function (i.e., 0.25) 0.0840 15 % Log-Normal μ = -0.59891 Assumption based on [2]
σ = 0.149166
Recurrence of insulin dependency per cycle
Probability of becoming partially dependent for patients with full graft function 0.0077379 0.001161 15 % Beta α = 44.09 Calculated from [2] and expert opinion
β = 5653.02
Probability of graft failure for patients with full graft functionb 0.0000164732 0.00000247 15 % Beta α = 44.44 Calculated from [2] and expert opinion
β = 2,697,667
Probability of graft failure within the first six months for patients with partial graft functionb 0.045 0.00675 15 % Beta α = 42.40 Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion
β = 899.81
Probability of graft failure after the first six months for patients with partial graft functionb 0.00532 0.000798 15 % Beta α = 44.20 Calculated from [2] and expert opinion
β = 8264.00
Complications
Probability of complications per cycle (over model horizon)
Major immunosuppressive-related 0.00006201 (0.015) 0.000009302 (0.00225) 15 % Beta α = 44.44 Assumption based on [2] and expert opinion
β = 716,613.00
Ratio of above that are have to end immunosuppression 0.100 0.015   Beta α = 39.90 Assumption based on expert opinion
β = 359.10
Additional diabetes-relatedc 0.0018185 (0.55) 0.000364 (0.0825) 20 % Beta α = 24.96 Assumption based on [33]
β = 13,700.60
Mortality (probability of death)
Background all-cause mortality (Age-specific)    Fixed   Weighted mean of [34] fitted to match [35]
Hazard ratio (HR) of mortality due to hypoglycemia 2.40 0.24 10 % Log-Normal μ = 0.870494 Assumption based on [14, 16, 17, 35] and expert opinion
σ = 0.099751
HR of mortality due to diabetes-related complications 298.45 % of HR with only hypoglycemia (i.e., 7.16) 29.85 10 % Log-Normal μ = 1.088457 Assumption based on [14, 16, 17, 35] and expert opinion
σ = 0.099751
1. Bold values were directly used as model inputs and for calculating mean, standard deviation (SD) and relative standard deviation (RSD; i.e., SD as percentage of the mean). Other values were incorporated into bold values. Most per-cycle values were used in several states and therefore do not sum up to annual or model horizon values. Superscripts: a Source relates to mean values. SD values were the authors’ estimations due to lack of data. b Meaning graft failure that is not due to ending immunosuppression because of major immunosuppressive complications. c For patients that did not get an islet transplantation or patients with graft failure after islet transplantation