Ratio of patients having initial complications

0.650

0.0650

10 %

Beta

α = 34.30

Assumption based on [2] and expert opinion

β = 18.47

Ratio of patients being insulin independent 23 days after the latest transplantation

For the 1st transplantation

0.150

0.0375

25 %

Beta

α = 13.45

Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion

β = 76.21

For the 2nd transplantation

0.700

0.1050

15 %

Beta

α = 12.63

Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion

β = 5.41

For the 3rd and 4th transplantation (each)

0.850

0.0355

15 %

Beta

α = 5.80

Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion

β = 1.02

Hazard ratio (HR) of getting diabetesrelated complications

For patients with partial graft function

0.450

0.0675

15 %

LogNormal

μ = 0.8096

Assumption based on [2]

σ = 0.149166

For patients with full graft function

55.56 % of HR with partial graft function (i.e., 0.25)

0.0840

15 %

LogNormal

μ = 0.59891

Assumption based on [2]

σ = 0.149166

Recurrence of insulin dependency per cycle

Probability of becoming partially dependent for patients with full graft function

0.0077379

0.001161

15 %

Beta

α = 44.09

Calculated from [2] and expert opinion

β = 5653.02

Probability of graft failure for patients with full graft function^{b}

0.0000164732

0.00000247

15 %

Beta

α = 44.44

Calculated from [2] and expert opinion

β = 2,697,667

Probability of graft failure within the first six months for patients with partial graft function^{b}

0.045

0.00675

15 %

Beta

α = 42.40

Assumption based on [23] and expert opinion

β = 899.81

Probability of graft failure after the first six months for patients with partial graft function^{b}

0.00532

0.000798

15 %

Beta

α = 44.20

Calculated from [2] and expert opinion

β = 8264.00

Complications

Probability of complications per cycle (over model horizon)

Major immunosuppressiverelated

0.00006201 (0.015)

0.000009302 (0.00225)

15 %

Beta

α = 44.44

Assumption based on [2] and expert opinion

β = 716,613.00

Ratio of above that are have to end immunosuppression

0.100

0.015
 
Beta

α = 39.90

Assumption based on expert opinion

β = 359.10

Additional diabetesrelated^{c}

0.0018185 (0.55)

0.000364 (0.0825)

20 %

Beta

α = 24.96

Assumption based on [33]

β = 13,700.60

Mortality (probability of death)

Background allcause mortality

(Agespecific)
  
Fixed
 
Weighted mean of [34] fitted to match [35]

Hazard ratio (HR) of mortality due to hypoglycemia

2.40

0.24

10 %

LogNormal

μ = 0.870494

Assumption based on [14, 16, 17, 35] and expert opinion

σ = 0.099751

HR of mortality due to diabetesrelated complications

298.45 % of HR with only hypoglycemia (i.e., 7.16)

29.85

10 %

LogNormal

μ = 1.088457

Assumption based on [14, 16, 17, 35] and expert opinion

σ = 0.099751
