Figure 4

Model structure and survival curves. Manufacturer's (MM), Welsh Medicines Partnership (WMP) and perfect drug scenario (PD) input survival curves used in economic model. Data input shown as symbols, solid lines represent Gompertz distributions fit to data. In the MM and WMP models PEG treatment continues for 20 years and compliance is 92%. GP = general population (survival in PEG-compliant patients returns survival to that of the general population). SC = standard care (survival in standard care derived by applying a standardised mortality rate (SMR = 2.63 for MM, 1.5 for WMP, and 3.6 for PD) to the survival of the GP). The curves shown are modelled using mortality data from the Office of National Statistics for England (population about 50 million) or for Wales (population about 5 million) as appropriate.