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Table 4 Regression coefficients, hazard ratio (HR), and goodness-of-fit of TRIAD Models and comparisons of the hazard ratios with the original risk equations

From: Evaluation of risk equations for prediction of short-term coronary heart disease events in patients with long-standing type 2 diabetes: the Translating Research into Action for Diabetes (TRIAD) study

  

TRIAD models

Original

Model

Variable

Coeff

Standard Error or 95%CI

p-value

HR

HR

Incident

Age (year)

0.038

0.008

<.0001

1.038*

1.059

UKPDS

Female (yes/no)

−0.109

0.188

0.561

0.896*

0.525

 

African American (yes/no)

−0.154

0.281

0.585

0.858*

0.390

 

(yes/no)

0.440

0.235

0.061

1.552

1.350

 

HbA1c

0.075

0.054

0.170

1.077

1.183

 

SBP

0.010

0.005

0.034

1.010

1.008

 

loge (TCa/HDL)

0.588

0.359

0.102

1.801*

3.845

 

C index

0.66

(0.61, 0.71)

   
 

p-value for GOF

0.48

    

UKPDS

Age (year)

0.035

0.009

<.0001

1.035*

1.059

 

Female (yes/no)

−0.122

0.188

0.517

0.885*

0.525

 

African American (yes/no)

−0.160

0.281

0.569

0.852*

0.390

 

Smoker (yes/no)

0.450

0.235

0.055

1.568

1.350

 

A1c

0.066

0.055

0.234

1.068

1.183

 

SBP

0.010

0.005

0.037

1.010

1.008

 

loge (TCa/HDL)

0.612

0.358

0.089

1.844

3.845

 

Duration (year)

0.012

0.009

0.177

1.012*

1.078

 

C index

0.66

(0.61, 0.71)

   
 

p-value for GOF

0.62

    

Framingham

-Initial

Age (year)

0.037

0.009

<.0001

1.038

1.049

Male

TC, mg/dL

     
 

 <160

−0.154

0.385

0.690

0.857

0.517

 

 160-199

-

-

-

-

-

 

 200–239

0.415

0.239

0.083

1.514

1.194

 

 240-279

0.052

0.422

0.903

1.053

1.658

 

 ≥280

−0.228

1.055

0.829

0.796

1.929

 

HDL, mg/dL

     
 

 <35

−0.004

0.355

0.990

0.996

1.645

 

 35-44

−0.179

0.306

0.560

0.836

1.275

 

 45-59

-

-

-

-

-

 

 50-59

−0.297

0.397

0.455

0.743

0.950

 

 ≥60

−0.272

0.465

0.558

0.762

0.615

 

Blood Pressureb

     
 

 Optimal

−0.513

0.459

0.264

0.599

0.998

 

 Normal

-

-

-

-

-

 

 High normal

−0.059

0.326

0.857

0.943

1.327

 

 Hypertension stage I

0.037

0.299

0.903

1.037

1.685

 

 Hypertension stage II–IV

−0.009

0.376

0.982

0.991

1.856

 

Smoker

0.216

0.273

0.429

1.241

1.688

 

C index

0.65

(0.59, 0.70)

   
 

p-value for GOF

0.53

    

Framingham

-Initial

Age (year)

0.157

0.080

0.050

1.170*

1.402

Female

Age2 (year)

−0.001

0.001

0.103

0.999

0.997

 

TC, mg/dL

     
 

 <160

−0.759

0.547

0.168

0.468

0.77

 

 160-199

-

-

-

-

-

 

 200–239

−0.072

0.233

0.756

0.930

1.231

 

 240-279

0.302

0.302

0.318

1.353

1.276

 

 ≥280

0.693

0.356

0.052

1.999

1.708

 

HDL, mg/dL

     
 

 <35

0.415

0.461

0.369

1.515

2.324

 

 35-44

0.132

0.291

0.652

1.141

1.459

 

 50-59

0.210

0.336

0.534

1.233

1.219

 

 50-59

-

-

-

-

-

 

 ≥60

0.372

0.269

0.167

1.451**

0.651

 

Blood Pressureb

     
 

 Optimal

−0.638

0.469

0.174

0.528

0.586

 

 Normal

-

-

-

-

-

 

 High normal

−0.298

0.318

0.348

0.742

0.935

 

 Hypertension stage I

0.119

0.270

0.660

1.126

1.301

 

 Hypertension stage II–IV

0.340

0.301

0.259

1.404

1.593

 

Smoker

0.440

0.236

0.062

1.553

1.340

 

C index

0.67

(0.63, 0.72)

   
 

p-value for GOF

0.62

    

-Secondary

Age (year)

0.006

0.007

0.426

1.005

1.015

Male

loge(TC†/HDL)

0.604

0.261

0.023

1.827

1.962

 

C index

0.55

(0.51, 0.59)

   
 

p-value for GOF

0.27

    

-Secondary

Age (year)

0.012

0.008

0.131

1.012

1.022

Female

loge (TC†/HDL)

0.336

0.335

0.319

1.395

2.245

 

loge (SBP)

0.793

0.560

0.157

2.248

3.780

 

Smoker (yes/no)

−0.266

0.240

0.269

0.764

1.427

 

C index

0.55

(0.50, 0.59)

   
 

p-value for GOF

0.23

    
  1. aTC = Total Cholesterol.
  2. bBlood Pressure categories (mmHg): Optimal: Systolic < 120, Diastolic <80; Normal: Systolic 120–129, Diastolic <80-84; High normal: Systolic 130–139, Diastolic 85–89; Hypertension stage I: Systolic 140–159, Diastolic 90–99, Hypertension stage II–IV: Systolic ≥ 160, Diastolic ≥100 [4].
  3. *p<0.05, **p<0.01, ***P<0.001 in the HR comparisons of the TRIAD models with original models. Note that in comparing HRs with the Framingham-initial equations, the actual p-values may be slightly bigger than those reported here because the standard errors of the original regression coefficient estimates were not provided in original study [4] and they were not included in these calculations.
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BMC Endocrine Disorders

ISSN: 1472-6823

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