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Table 3 Predictors of 5-year cardiovascular mortality of patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes.

From: Predictors of mortality of patients newly diagnosed with clinical type 2 diabetes: a 5-year follow up study

  

Univariate analyses

Multivariate analyses

  

Survived or died from cause other than cardiovascular disease

n = 1,159

Died from cardiovascular disease

n = 164

 

Model I

n = 1,108h

Model IIg

n = 1,108h

Model III

n = 1,108h

Information criteria, AIC/BIC

    

1138.8/1186.7

1125.2/1184.4

1128.9/1179.7

Sex

Women

546 (47)

73 (45)

1

1

1

1

 

Men

613 (53)

91 (55)

1.51 (1.10-2.08)**

1.52 (0.98-2.36)

1.39 (0.89-2.17)

1.36 (0.87-2.12)

Age at diabetes diagnosis (years)

 

64.0 (54.6-72.4)

74.4 (65.7-79.7)

0.96 (0.88-1.06)

0.86 (0.78-0.97)**

0.84 (0.75-0.94)**

0.84 (0.75-0.94)**

Living alone

No

787 (69)

84 (54)

1

1

1

1

 

Yes

347 (31)

72 (46)

1.10 (0.78-1.54)

1.23 (0.82-1.84)

1.24 (0.83-1.86)

1.28 (0.85-1.92)

Education

Higher

246 (22)

26 (18)

1

1

1

1

 

Basic

857 (78)

122 (82)

0.84 (0.54-1.29)

0.87 (0.53-1.41)

0.94 (0.58-1.54)

0.95 (0.58-1.55)

Diagnostic plasma glucose (mmol/l)a

 

13.7 (10.7-17.0)

13.6 (10.6-17.1)

1.11 (0.71-1.76)

0.90 (0.53-1.54)

1.01 (0.59-1.74)

1.03 (0.60-1.77)

Fasting triglycerides (mmol/l)

 

1.96 (1.38-2.91)

1.96 (1.49-2.84)

1.04 (1.01-1.07)*

0.95 (0.86-1.04)

0.95 (0.87-1.05)

0.96 (0.88-1.05)

Total cholesterol (mmol/l)

 

6.2 (5.4-7.1)

6.1 (5.2-7.0)

1.04 (0.94-1.14)

1.09 (0.95-1.26)

1.06 (0.92-1.23)

1.06 (0.91-1.22)

Urinary albumin (mg/l)a

 

11.1 (5.6-26.1)

19.7 (8.9-48.8)

1.24 (1.11-1.37)***

1.19 (1.05-1.36)**

1.18 (1.04-1.34)*

1.16 (1.03-1.32)*

Body mass index (kg/m2)

 

29.3 (26.3-33.0)

28.1 (25.8-31.5)

1.00 (0.97-1.03)

0.99 (0.95-1.03)

0.99 (0.95-1.03)

0.99 (0.95-1.03)

Resting heart rate (beats/min)b

 

76 (68-84)

76 (72-88)

1.17 (1.04-1.32)**

1.07 (0.92-1.24)

1.05 (0.90-1.22)

1.06 (0.92-1.23)

Systolic blood pressure (mmHg)b

 

150 (130-160)

155 (132-170)

0.97 (0.90-1.05)

1.03 (0.94-1.12)

1.04 (0.95-1.15)

1.06 (0.97-1.16)

Physical activity

Active

847 (75)

88 (57)

1

1

1

1

 

Sedentary

282 (25)

67 (43)

1.63 (1.16-2.27)**

1.60 (1.07-2.40)*

1.57 (1.06-2.34)*

1.45 (0.98-2.14)

Smoking

Never

353 (32)

53 (34)

1

1

1

1

 

Former

361 (33)

61 (39)

1.51 (1.03-2.21)*

1.45 (0.90-2.34)

1.47 (0.90-2.39)

1.48 (0.91-2.41)

 

Current

391 (35)

41 (26)

1.28 (0.83-1.98)

1.00 (0.58-1.72)

1.02 (0.59-1.77)

1.01 (0.58-1.75)

Self-rated healthc d e f

Excellent

152 (13)

5 (3)

1

1

1

 
 

Good

389 (34)

48 (31)

1.55 (0.84-2.88)

3.46 (1.35-8.87)**

3.13 (1.22-8.06)*

 
 

Fair

490 (43)

84 (54)

1.85 (1.03-3.33)*

3.63 (1.45-9.09)**

2.93 (1.16-7.41)*

 
 

(Very) poor

104 (9)

19 (12)

2.22 (1.09-4.50)*

2.47 (0.84-7.28)

1.77 (0.59-5.30)

 

Cardiovascular disease

No

832 (74)

66 (44)

1

 

1

1

 

Yes

293 (26)

85 (56)

2.58 (1.85-3.59)***

 

2.39 (1.62-3.51)***

2.45 (1.68-3.57)***

Diabetic retinopathy

No

1,061 (95)

137 (93)

1

 

1

1

 

Yes

51 (5)

10 (7)

1.21 (0.63-2.33)

 

1.21 (0.59-2.48)

1.18 (0.58-2.40)

Peripheral neuropathy

No

933 (82)

118 (74)

1

 

1

1

 

Yes

209 (18)

42 (26)

1.16 (0.81-1.67)

 

0.96 (0.62-1.47)

1.03 (0.67-1.57)

Cancer (former or present)

No

1,100 (95)

160 (98)

1

 

1

1

 

Yes

59 (5)

4 (2)

0.49 (0.18-1.33)

 

0.61 (0.19-1.94)

0.59 (0.18-1.86)

  1. Values of characteristics at diabetes diagnosis are numbers (%) or medians (95%-confidence intervals). Hazard ratios (95%-confidence intervals) and p-values are from univariate Cox regression analyses and from 3 multivariate Cox regression analyses with and without self-rated health and/or complications at diabetes diagnosis g. Missing values are shown in Table 1.
  2. a The characteristic is log-transformed in the analysis
  3. b Hazard ratio estimates risk increase per 10 units of the characteristic
  4. c Information criteria for the univariate Cox regression model (n = 1,108 h): AIC = 1194.4; BIC = 1203.0
  5. d Wald test for the overall effect of self-rated health: p-value = 0.036 (model I); p-value = 0.053 (model II)
  6. e Wald test for the equality of the three self-rated health effects: p-value = 0.80 (model I); p-value = 0.29 (model II)
  7. f Trend test including the SRH variable as a continuous variable in the multivariate regression analysis: p-value = 0.027 (model I); p-value = 0.55 (model II)
  8. g Test for proportional hazards: a Wald test for the joint significance of the interaction between log(time) and each of the model variables: p-value = 0.61
  9. h All multivariate analyses are based on 1,108 entries without missing values in any of the three models; n for censored/deceased from CVD = 984/124
  10. * p < 0.05, **p ≤ 0.01, ***p ≤ 0.001